At the end of 2021, ANZ was the last of the five major banks in NZ to officially predict house prices to fall this year. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner commented “…it’s looking like the shine is well and truly coming off the housing market, with weaker sales, tighter LVR restrictions and new consumer lending protections legislation seeing mortgage lending rapidly drying up, even as new listings surged to multi-year highs.” BNZ economists went so far as to suggest the drop in property prices may be closer to 7% by the end of 2022.
However, Squirrel – the new-school online mortgage lender – suggests that as long as supply continues to be limited (which is certainly the case here in Tauranga), nothing will dramatically slow the local market. With terraced housing developments seeing a rise in value, the knock-on effect to properties that can be subdivided means the overall market is going to steadily increase.
So while the traditional and disruptive financial institutions seem to be at odds, what are the other major players thinking? Like Treasury for instance? As at Dec 2021, New Zealand’s lead advisor to the Government on financial policy expected house prices to increase more than 10% in 2022.
These varying expert opinions can be a lot to weigh up. Not to mention when everyone from your neighbour to your colleague to your grandma have their own predictions…
With several listings currently on the market and numerous properties sold in the last couple of months, the team here at Cashmores have a pretty good sense of what’s driving buyers and vendors right here, right now.
Give us a bell and we’ll be very happy to share our learnings, for what it’s worth!